The Caspian sea is getting shallower: builders want precise forecasts, but scientists only talk about probability

Abstract: The Russian government is interested in large-scale construction on the Caspian Sea coast, in creating a new resort area in Dagestan and in developing port infrastructure in the Astrakhan region. However, this largest lake-sea in the world is getting shallow. Investors and builders would like to know exactly how its level will change, but scientists are very cautious in their forecasts and prefer to talk only about the probability of changes. The Caspian Sea level is constantly fluctuating, its fall and rise can last even for tens, hundreds and thousands of years. The Caspian behaves like a sailor who left a bar: one sets the feet to the left and one gets to the right and somewhere forward. He will go away anyway, but it is unknown in which direction. This metaphor was recalled at the round table “Caspian Sea. The problem of its level fluctuations. New threats?” that was held at the geography faculty of Moscow State University. The scientists, who attended the round table, talked about past investigations, about various approaches and about mathematical modeling of various situations. In this article, we will focus on some points of that event, touch upon the current news agenda and present some engineers’ opinions.

Keywords: Caspian Sea; water level; level fluctuations; random walk; environmental forecasts; scenario forecasts; historical context; industrial significance; transport significance; resort significance