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ECOLOGICAL GEOLOGY

Attributing observed permafrost warming in the Northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change

Авторы
ГУДМУНДСОН Л.Институт наук об атмосфере и климате Швейцарского федерального технологического института, г. Цюрих, Швейцария
КИРХНЕР Й.Берлинский университет имени Гумбольдта, г. Берлин, Германия
ГЕДЕКЕ А. Потсдамский институт исследований воздействий на климат Объединения имени Лейбница, г. Потсдам, Германия
НЕЦЛИ Й.Институт исследований снега и лавин (SLF) Швейцарского федерального института исследований леса, снега и ландшафтов (WSL); Исследовательский центр по изменениям климата, экстремальным явлениям и природным опасностям в альпийских регионах (CERC), г. Давос-Дорф, Швейцария.
БИСКАБОРН Б.К.Институт Альфреда Вегенера, Центр полярных и морских исследований имени Гельмгольца, г. Потсдам, Германия

Abstract: We present a slightly abridged (without supplementary data) and adapted translation of the paper “Attributing observed permafrost warming in the Northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change” by German and Swiss researchers (Gudmundsson et al., 2022). It was published in the journal “Environmental Research Letters” by the publishing company of the British scientific society “Institute of Physics” (IOP) that is now virtually international. It is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license that allows it to be distributed, translated, adapted, and supplemented, provided that the types of changes are noted and the original source is referred to. In our case, the full reference to the original paper (Gudmundsson et al., 2022) used for the presented translation is given in the end. Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. This paper compares long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the Northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6, using a climate change detection and attribution approach. The article shows that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, the performed analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming.

 

Keywords: permafrost; global warming; detection; attribution.

DOI: 10.58339/2949-0677-2024-6-4-6-16

UDC: 551.345; 551.583

 

For citation: Gudmundsson L., Kirchner J., Gadeke A., Noetzli J., Biskaborn B.K. Ob"yasneniye nablyudaemogo potepleniya mnogoleteny merzloty v Severnom polusharii antropogenny sostavlyayuschhey izmeneniy klimata [Attributing observed permafrost warming in the Northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change] (translated from English into Russian) // Geoinfo. 2024. T. 6. № 4. S. 6–16 DOI:10.58339/2949-0677-2024-6-4-6-16 (in Rus.).

 

Funding: No information

 

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Article in RSCI: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=71306917